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Abhishek Goenka

Founder & CEO , IFA Global

Currency Guide

 

Questions Answered

Q

guest: Will buying rate of dollars fall in next 3-4 days. I have to change one into dollar.going to visit USA on 2 may

Abhishek Goenka: The dollar-rupee is not expected to retrace till end of this month as fundamentals and technical factors are suggesting further upside above 67.00 levels.
Q

guest: Future usd position

Abhishek Goenka: We assume that your question is based on outlook on USDINR. In the near term, fundamental factors such as higher crudeoil prices, rising domestic as well as US government bond yield is supporting DOllar demand. Further, FII outflow from domestic market is weighing on local currency. If Rupee breaks 66.70, there is almost no technical level in sight till the all time high of 68.90. The spread between offshore and onshore forward points was at its widest in recent times (8-9p) indicating massive unwinding of offshore carry positions.
Q

guest: Can I buy JPY at this level??

Abhishek Goenka: Apart from actual fundamentals, uncertaint and non-event factors are affecting demand for Yen. Over the past two weeks, we have seen geopolitical tension and trade tension is easing off. And the same has been observed for demand in yen. Gold and Yen both are weakening right now. But ahead of Trump and Kim Jong Un, volatility is likely to remain high in yen. Technically, the USDJPY pair is expected to trade higher with potential target of 110-110.20 levels in the near term.
Q

guest: What is your view on GBP

Abhishek Goenka: Over the past 10 days, we had observed job report, retail sales, inflation figures all came below expectation levels. further, last Thursday, Carney posted doubt on another interest rate hike next month. Growth data from UK and US is expected to release on Friday. UK prelim GDP is expected to come at 0.3% vs. 0.4%. Summing up, fundamentals are not supportive for pound. And technicals too seem turning for the downside. Hence, short to medium term trend remains bearish for Pound. Bearish engulfing has been observed on Pound weekly chart. Potential further correction can be seen upto 1.3850-1.3800 levels. Reversal point is located around 1.4150 levels.
Q

guest: Hi can I sell JPYINR

Abhishek Goenka: Apart from actual fundamentals, uncertaint and non-event factors are affecting demand for Yen. Over the past two weeks, we have seen geopolitical tension and trade tension is easing off. And the same has been observed for demand in yen. Gold and Yen both are weakening right now. But ahead of Trump and Kim Jong Un, volatility is likely to remain high in yen. Technically, the USDJPY pair is expected to trade higher with potential target of 110-110.20 levels in the near term. Considering view on both pair, the JPYINR pair is expected to trade in tight range of 0.6050-0.6280 in the near term.
Q

guest: Should I sell USDINR

Abhishek Goenka: It is not advisable to go short in trending market. The break of 65.35 was a significant break out. The first major resistance is 66.65-70 (from where the Rupee had gapped down post the UP election results). If Rupee breaks 66.70, there is almost no technical level in sight till the all time high of 68.90.
Q

guest: Wjat is your view on EUR

Abhishek Goenka: Week by week, Euro is extending its sideways zone. As a contrary trader this could be considered as “Lull before a storm”. Higher US bond yield helped DXY to recover back above 90 levels. Now focus will definitely on ECB meet. Despite stronger economic conditions in the eurozone, the ECB has been in cautious mode. Technically, the pair is trading in the tight range of 1.2150-1.2400 zone. Either side breakout will fetch atleast 300 pips move. Hence, one should wait for the confirmation of the trend.
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