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Abhishek Goenka

Founder & CEO , IFA Global

Currency Guide

 

Questions Answered

Q

guest: could you please guide interaday in currency trading

Abhishek Goenka: Assuming your question is regarding USDINR view for intraday. In today`s session, we will see USDINR pair to trade in the range of 64.05-64.30 band. after lower CPI and fall in US dollar, rupee is slightly trading on appreciating mode and it is expected to trade higher against US dollar for the day.
Q

guest: Hello sir whats your view on INR for the next six months.

Abhishek Goenka: For next six months, USDINR pair is expected to trade in the range of 63.00-66.00 zone with slightly downside bias (Rupee bullish). Recent spike in global volatility, outflow from equity, higher budget deficit target for 2018-2019 financial year and LTCG are some of the concern for Rupee. Hence, In short term rupee can be seen depreciating against US dollar but expected to remain temporary. However,stable political scenario and bullish foreign investors on India will help domestic markets and currency to outperform against other emerging markets.
Q

guest: What will dollar be in march

Abhishek Goenka: After budget we had seen outflow from domestic markets on concern over LTCG and higher budget deficit. This was also coincided with a spike in global market volatility. Further, US rate hike and higher US inflation figure could affect rupee movement. After recently released domestic CPI and IIP data, forex participants are now staring at RBI’s bi-monthly as a tighter policy stance may impact markets. Overall, view remains bearish for rupee till March. The likely range would be 63.80-64.70.
Q

guest: What is your view on jpyinr

Abhishek Goenka: Recently, we are seeing sharp appreciation in Yen because of safe haven demand ahead of US CPI and core retail data. technically, in last week, JPYINR had given breakout on the upside. hence, in short to medium term bias for JPYINR remains bullish. Likely upside- 0.6050-0.6100 Downside support- 0.5880-0.5850
Q

guest: Can I buy EUR, regards joshi

Abhishek Goenka: After straight seven weeks of gains, last week Euro fell by almost 1.80%. However, in this week Euro was trying to recover its losses and move above 1.2400 levels. It is advised to wait for today`s Eurozone GBP, US CPI and core retail sales data. hence, wait for the confirmation.
Q

guest: Can I sell USDINR at this level?

Abhishek Goenka: For short term, it is not advisable to go short on USDINR at current levels. It is expected to find support near 64-64.05 levels. On the higher side, it is finding hurdle near 64.40-64.45 levels. Either side breakout will fetch some momentum.
Q

guest: What is your view on GBPINR?

Abhishek Goenka: GBPINR is showing short term correction. After better than expected UK CPI, we had seen minor recovery in pound. But overall, GBPINR is not expected to move above 90-90.20 levels in the near term. On the downside, support can be seen near 88.50 levels. If it breaches than 88.00-87.30 levels can be seen.
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