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Chat Transcript

Renisha Chainani

Head - Commodity and Currency Research , Monarch Networth Capital Ltd

Know what's trending in Commodity markets


Questions Answered


guest: Which side Silver trend ? Uper or lower

Renisha Chainani : Silver is facing resistance at 38400-38900 range. We have seen demand zone creation near 37500 levels and more upside may happen only after testing of 37500 levels. On the downside, we don’t see prices to drop below 37000.

guest: What about zinc

Renisha Chainani : Technically prices has found support around 178-179 level. Current intermediate trend is in uptrend due to positive fundamentals. LME Zinc stocks, currently near 270,000 tonnes, are down by 37% and cancelled warrants (stocks earmarked for delivery) stand at a whopping 70%, indicating sharp tightness in the metal. Shanghai stocks, on the other hand, are down by 50% near 78,000 tonne.

guest: Trend for nickel pls

Renisha Chainani : Nickel has given breakout above Rs 630 after Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said the government will draft a new law for the country`s mining industry. Moreover, Indonesia exported 403,201 tonnes of nickel ore in the first six months of 2017, when a complete ban on exports was lifted. Nickel is expected to trend higher towards 650 in shortterm.

guest: Crude oil bay ya sell karen

Renisha Chainani : Crude Oil prices extended gains yesterday after Saudi Arabia pledged to curb exports from next month and OPEC called on several members to boost compliance with production cuts to help rein in global oversupply and tackle flagging prices.There could be short-covering seen from current levels towards 3050. Downside support is 2965 and 2935.

guest: Copper buy or sell please tell me

Renisha Chainani : Copper has struck its highest level since mid February to reach above $6000 at LME after a unexpected strength in China`s economy and a weaker dollar fanned upside technical momentum. Sentiment towards copper from the physical market has picked up as fabricators in China have replenished their inventories. Strongly uptrend shows on daily chart with upside potential TGT of 400/403, while on the downside 390/387 level may act as crucial support zone

guest: Gold silver me kya kare

Renisha Chainani : Gold is taking a breather after a big run up the last few days. From short term perspective, Gold looks bullish. The rally from 27600 to 28600 seems impulsive in nature. Also, we have seen strong buying near 28100 and 28200 range. Any dips towards 28200 can be used as a buying opportunity in this commodity. We don’t see Gold prices to slide below 28000 in near term. In fact, we see a correction towards 28200 to happen before any move higher.

guest: what will be bullish or bearish status on Natural gas and cruide oil

Renisha Chainani : Natural Gas prices are trading in a wider range of 185 and 200. The commodity may face stiff resistance around 195 levels which can be used as a selling opportunity to target 185 levels on the downside. The break of 203 levels only may change the overall trend in the commodity.

vijay9808: Madam , kindly give me suggestion for basemetal pack , According to you for next 5 working days which metal commodity having strong technical signal as buy/sell with stoploss

Renisha Chainani : Base Metals looks strong as of now as Global growth seems to be ticking along. Chinese and Japanese trade data and this week’s Chinese GDP, industrial production and retail sales, bode well, even if US data has showed some weakness. Steady concerted growth in Europe, the USA and China, combined with a slightly less hawkish US Federal Reserve view, and should be good for metals demand. Copper could be bought with SL of 387 for Tgt 400/403 and Nickel could be could be bought with SL of 622 and Tgt 648-650

guest: what is the trend of Aluminium?

Renisha Chainani : Looking at the weekly chart of Aluminium, prices had formed lower top - lower bottom formation which reflects its medium term trend is in still down overall. Since last 4 Months the prices are trading in range of 121/126 level. If prices give positive breakout above 123.50; potential TGT would be 126.

guest: Iam in sell in zinc @ 176. Can i hold or book loss?

Renisha Chainani : As Zinc fundamentals are positive, selling should be avoided. Exit in sell and infact buying could be initiated around 180 with SL of 178 and Tgt 183/184.

vijay9808: Dear madam, As recently the metal pack expiry is nearer so according to you , plz provide me suggestion for next 5 working days trading view with stoploss in Lead Zinc Spread

Renisha Chainani : As basemetals are in positive trend, Zinc-Lead spread is expected to widen further in next 5 working days. Buying could be initiated at in spread around 35 with SL below 33.5 and Tgt 37

guest: Hi why is silver going price going up and what is target price in 3 months?

Renisha Chainani : There is an interesting development on the monthly chart of silver. The bull only needs to push the price above July high in August to drive upward momentum in silver. We favor the price reach $21 by the end of the year and possibly $25 for long-term. (All will depend on U.S dollar bounce

guest: This time buy silver??? In commodity markt

Renisha Chainani : Yes, its time to buy Silver as the recent weakness in the US dollar follows a string of underwhelming data releases in the US, with consumer sentiment falling while inflation remains stubbornly low. Political gridlock in Washington has also weighed on the currency, with the time-frame for pro-growth infrastructure spending and corporate tax-cut proposals now uncertain.

guest: Madam, Good morning .please give the target in Gold Silver up to Deepawali.Thanks.

Renisha Chainani : Bullion are expected to continue its bull run till Deepawali as the probability of FED raising interest rate in December in going down. Political gridlock in Washington has also weighed on the US Dollar, with the time-frame for pro-growth infrastructure spending and corporate tax-cut proposals now uncertain. So by Deepawali, Gold and Silver are expected to touch Rs 29500 and Rs 40000 respectively

guest: INR against USD can you please give forecast for next 2 months

Renisha Chainani : USDINR is trading in range of 64.10 to 65.10 from past 3 months not reflecting the weakness of US Dollar. Traders continue to sell the US dollar, with net positioning for the greenback close to turning short for the first time since May 2016. CFTC shows that leveraged funds reduced their net positions in the USD by a further $US2 billion last week. The recent weakness in the US dollar follows a string of underwhelming data releases in the US, with consumer sentiment falling while inflation remains stubbornly low. This shows that INR has inherent strength, so for next two months, same range will continue.

guest: Renishaji jeera view

Renisha Chainani : Jeera has dropped on profit booking from higher levels due to lower physical demand. Jeera stocks in the producing and consuming markets are state to be lower due to fall in output during 2016-17. Short-term trend is sideways with support at 18370 and resistance at 20050. Medium Term View is Bullish due to better Export Demand, Low carry over stock and Lower Arrivals
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