You can call them emerging markets or rapid-growth markets, but the bottomline is that the BRICS nations have emerged as the islands of prosperity in a global economy that is collapsing. According to a growth forecast by Ernst & Young for 2013, analysts expect only a very modest recovery with the way emerging markets are moving.
For 2012, analysts estimate a significant decline for emerging markets and growth is expected to fall from 6.3% down to about 5.3%. China and Hong Kong expected to grow at about 8.2%. In terms of rapid-growth markets, the Ernst & Young survey identified Brazil, Chile, Kazakhstan, Qatar, India, China, Hong Kong and Vietnam.
A panel of experts from Ernst & Young comprising Ajen Sita, managing partner, Africa, Jorge Menegassi, managing partner, Brazil and South America, Albert NG, chairman and managing partner, Greater China and Karl Johansson, managing partner, CIS have come together to discuss, on CNBC-TV18, the possibilities of growth, opportunities and the challenges on the road ahead for the BRICS nations.
Below is an edited transcript of the panel discussion on CNBC-TV18.
Q: All eyes are on how well the Chinese economy is going to grow or slowdown. At this point in time estimates suggest China will not be able to post a growth rate of 8% as expected. What's your own sense?
Albert NG: I think when you look at the GDP growth for Q2, its the first time since the Q1 of 2009 that the growth is below 8%. I, personally, am still very optimistic about China achieving the 7.5% growth that the government has set for itself for this year.
People talk about hard lending, soft lending. I am sure that the economy will slowdown. China is connected to the rest of the world and cannot escape when the rest of the world is not doing well. It is important that China maintains sustainable growth.
Q: What are the big problems that everybody is talking about now? How real is the concern about China losing its competitiveness?