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Abhishek Goenka

Founder & CEO , IFA Global

Currency Guide

 

Questions Answered

Q

guest: Hello sir i have to exchange inr into usd

Abhishek Goenka: I assume that your question is related to view on Rupee against US dollar. After bottoming near 63.60, Rupee fell to 65.80 and since then we are seeing sideways in the market. Hence, any rate near 65.60-65.80 you can take a call on conversion.
Q

guest: Can I invest in EURINR

Abhishek Goenka: Regarding Euro, We have seen almost 12% rally since bottom of 69 and more than 15% rally in case of EURUSD. However, Fed`s balance sheet trimming and another rate hike in upcoming Dec month has supported Dollar at lower levels. On view front, EURUSD is finding support near 1.1650 and bouncing back towards 1.1830-1.1.1850 levels. If it breaks 1.1650 then we can assume medium to long term top has been made and can be seen correction upto 1.1400-1.1350 levels. Hence, medium term view remains bullish in case of Euro and same for EURINR pair.
Q

guest: Please share your view on JYPINR. Thanks

Abhishek Goenka: We have seen JPYINR moving in the range of 0.5630-0.5950 since last 8 months. In very short term, we can expect some kind of volatility in the pair due to Japan`s election, held on 22nd Oct. Further, geopolitical tension between US and North Korea could affect the pair. considering this facts, our view is that JPYINR pair can be seen trading in the same range. Any safe-haven demand in Yen could take JPYINR higher towards resistance of 0.5900-0.5950 levels.
Q

guest: What is your view on INR? Can I buy USD?

Abhishek Goenka: In very short term, USDINR pair can be seen trading in the range of 64.90-65.80. One can go long USDINR around 65.00-65.10 levels. But it is expected to remain under resistance of 65.80.
Q

guest: In next two three days dollar rate view

Abhishek Goenka: For next 2-3 days we can be seen pair trading in the range of 65.00-65.70 band with immediate resistance of 65.45. If this is taken out then we can expect 65.70-65.75 levels. Focus will be on this week`s domestic and US inflation figure.
Q

guest: how much up side in market today

Abhishek Goenka: I assume that question is regarding currency market and specifically USDINR. It can be seen moving towards its resistance of 65.40-65.45 levels.
Q

guest: what is the view for dollar/rupee for next 15 days

Abhishek Goenka: Looking at current development and considering fundamentals as well as technicals, our view is that USDINR pair can be seen trading in the sideways range of 64.90-65.80. Either side breakout will decide the near term trend.
Q

guest: Do you see the rupee making a record low over the next month

Abhishek Goenka: Slow down in the economic activity after demonetization phase and implementation of GST, domestic growth has been sluggish over the past two quarters. However, hot money- FII and stable political scenario and all time high forex reserves led the monmentum to take the rupee at 63.60 levels. The recent figures of fiscal deficit and recovery in the US dollar kept some pressure on Rupee. In such situation, RBI will definitely intervene in the market to control the currency moves and we can not see rupee to make a life time low in atleast next 3 to 4 months.
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